I think Obama will probably take the Presidency here in a week, but the disparate polls should bring us pause. How is it that consistently over the past few weeks there have been some polls with Obama up by as much as 12 points and other that put the two candidates firmly within the margin of error of each other? Obivously, there are discrepancies in the way that different polling organizations present the data, but what I want to look at is the undecideds. My hypothesis is simple, short, and may prove to be completely right or way off base here in a week.
With all the media coverage and fawning over Obama that we’ve seen, my guess is that if someone hasn’t made up their mind about Obama yet, they probably won’t now.
They’ve certainly had ample opportunity. Why are they still undecided? Are they holding out for more information on Obama or are they waiting to see if McCain loses all his marbles? I suspect the latter, and so if McCain proves sane over the next week, I think you’ll see the vast majority of undecided voters break for McCain. The big difference maker will be this: are the polls giving Obama a huge margin right or are the ones showing a dead-heat correct? Only one of the scenarios will have my theory giving McCain the presidency. It’s quite an uphill battle for him.
I think it’ll be interesting to see the poll statistics after everything’s said and done. Obama’s marketing has buried McCain’s, but he’s also marketed to people who have historically NOT turned out to vote. The biggest percentage of voters is typically the senior set…so I’m interested, even though I think Obama will still probably pull it off, to see how many of his fans actually end up voting…